Berliner Boersenzeitung - Lebanon leaders in talks for new bid to elect president

The tiny Mediterranean country, already deep in economic and political crisis, has been without a president for more than two years amid bitter divisions between Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah and its opponents.

Army chief Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner, with backers of his candidacy saying he might be the man to oversee the rapid deployment of the military in south Lebanon.

Under the terms of a November 27 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful movement is to pull its fighters away from areas near the border, leaving only the national army to deploy there.

But some parties still appear reluctant to back the army chief in the 13th attempt to choose a new leader since the term of the last president, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022.

While their family names are identical, Joseph Aoun and Michel Aoun are not related.

In a country still scarred by a 1975-1990 civil war, the divided ruling class usually agrees on a candidate before any successful parliamentary vote is held.

After a year of war left Hezbollah weakened but not crushed, Lebanon's politicians have come under renewed external pressure to pick a leader.

French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian was on Wednesday in Lebanon to encourage all sides to elect a president.

A French diplomatic source said he had met Hezbollah parliament leader Mohammad Raad as well as other political blocs, insisting "on the urgency of electing a president of the republic, the first step into turning around Lebanese institutions".

Visiting US envoy Amos Hochstein on Monday urged the ruling class to take advantage of the truce between Israel and Hezbollah and reach "political consensus".

Lebanese analyst Karim Bitar said Aoun seemed "to be supported by the United States and to a lesser extent by France and Saudi Arabia".

- 'Single candidate'? -

Local media reported that Saudi deputy foreign minister Zeid bin Farhan was in Lebanon on Wednesday after a previous trip last week.

Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, said the Gulf nation was in touch with France, the United States and Egypt, and "trying to convince hesitating blocs to back Aoun".

The four nations, as well as Qatar, have been calling for a new president to kickstart reforms necessary to lift the country out of an unprecedented financial crisis it fell into in 2019.

Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Wednesday he was optimistic.

"For the first time since the presidency became vacant, I am pleased that God willing tomorrow we will have a president," he said.

Lebanon's powerful parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally, 86-year-old Nabih Berri, has invited Le Drian to attend Thursday's vote.

Under multi-confessional Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian and traditionally needs backing from at least one of the country's two major Christian parties.

Of these, the Lebanese Forces was to meet with allies and independent lawmakers in the evening, and announce their "support for a single candidate", a source within the party told AFP.

They did not say whether this would be Joseph Aoun, who if elected would be Lebanon's fifth army commander made president.

Berri's parliamentary bloc held a similar meeting.

Local media has reported that Berri does not believe Aoun to be a consensus candidate and is against a constitutional amendment to be able to elect a person still in a high office to the post.

Under the current constitution, the candidate must have not held such a position for at least two years.

The other main Christian party, The Free Patriotic Movement led by Michel Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil, is firmly against Joseph Aoun.

- 'We don't know' -

Other names circulating include Bassil, and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.

Former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official Jihad Azour, and acting security chief Elias Baissari, who Al-Akhbar says enjoys Berri's support, could also be candidates.

Critics have accused Hezbollah of impeding previous attempts to elect a president.

But Israel dealt Hezbollah a serious blow during the latest war between the two sides and killed the group's longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The group has also lost a key ally in neighbouring Syria since Islamist-led forces toppled president Bashar al-Assad last month.

"Hezbollah today is no longer capable of imposing someone really close to its camp," Bitar said.

But "it can still oppose someone that they really distrust".

In Beirut, Lebanese national Maysa Azzi said she hoped there would be a president on Thursday.

"But we don't know what will happen because it was never us choosing," she said.

"Either foreign powers did, or local stakeholders did to protect corruption. I hope this time it will be one we want."

(S.G.Stein--BBZ)