Berliner Boersenzeitung - Oil climbs on US-Iran deadlock, Seoul falls on calls for AI social tax

Seoul plunged five percent after a top official proposed a "national dividend" to redistribute excess corporate profits from artificial intelligence.

South Korea is riding an AI chip boom driving massive earnings for tech giants Samsung and SK hynix and sending the Kospi to record highs in recent weeks.

In Southeast Asia's biggest economy Indonesia, Jakarta was also down, falling two percent after the rupiah hit a record low against the dollar.

The burst of activity in Seoul and Jakarta contrasted with subdued markets elsewhere, with traders sitting on the sidelines amid uncertainty over the Middle East war.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Bangkok, Manila and Singapore were marginally lower, while Taipei and Kuala Lumpur were up.

Tokyo closed 0.5 percent higher after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo and Washington were "coordinating very well" on currency policy during US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's visit.

Weekend optimism over Washington's proposal to Iran to ease the conflict collapsed when US President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that Tehran's counter-offer was "garbage".

Trump warned that Iran's rejection of his administration's demands meant the already tenuous ceasefire is now "unbelievably weak".

The impasse, which leaves the vital Strait of Hormuz mostly closed to oil tanker traffic, unnerved global energy markets.

The international benchmark Brent crude jumped 1.3 percent to $105 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 1.6 percent to $99 a barrel.

- Wait and see -

Traders are now looking to Beijing, where Trump lands this week to meet President Xi Jinping, the first visit by a US president since his own in 2017.

Taiwan, tariffs and rare earths and the war in Iran are set to top the agenda, while top executives including Tesla boss Elon Musk and Apple's Tim Cook will fly in to back Trump's push to ramp up trade with Beijing.

Iranian officials will be keeping a close eye on Trump's visit, where he is expected to press Xi -- a major buyer of Iranian oil.

Analysts said traders were in wait-and-see mode as the war creeps towards its three-month mark.

"For now, President Trump is still talking about the idea that the ceasefire is on a 'massive life support'," analyst Rodrigo Catril told the NAB Morning Call podcast, referring to the US president's comments to reporters on Monday.

"The theme, I think, for markets is that as much as President Trump is not happy with what is on offer, he's also not suggesting that there's going to be an escalation."

US stocks held modest gains in Monday's trade, finishing a meandering session marginally higher as enthusiasm about artificial intelligence managed to offset concerns about higher oil prices.

But analysts have warned crude prices could spike dramatically if the war drags on into next month as supplies dwindle.

"Beneath the surface calm sits a market increasingly dependent on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen sometime before late June," said Stephen Innes, analyst with SPI Asset Management.

"An extended disruption (to the strait) would almost certainly force oil prices materially higher, tighten global financial conditions, and inflict far more serious economic damage than markets currently price in," he said.

- Key figures at around 0700 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.3 percent at $105.55 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 percent at $99.65 a barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.5 percent at 62,742.57 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,366.57

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 4,214.49 (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1754 from $1.1775 on Monday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3554 from $1.3628

Dollar/yen: UP at 157.42 from 157.23 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 86.72 pence from 86.40 pence

New York - DOW: UP 0.2 percent at 49,704.47 (close)

(A.Lehmann--BBZ)