Berliner Boersenzeitung - In Brazil's Amazon, the hunt for oil fuels hopes and fears

His village, Manga, is located around 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the center of Oiapoque, a town bordering French Guiana that has been buzzing since Brazilian oil giant Petrobras began offshore exploration in the region a year ago.

The state-run company announced in August that it had identified signs of oil in a well about 175 kilometers (109 miles) off the coast of northern Brazil's Amapa state.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection on October 4, promptly visited the area, calling the oil a "passport to the future."

Reaching Oiapoque requires travelling 600 kilometers (370 miles) from state capital Macapa, part of it along a red dirt road riddled with potholes. Makeshift wooden bridges are used to cross waterways.

Many streets in the town have no sidewalks, and are lined with low-rise buildings with run-down facades, although numerous construction projects are underway.

- 'Disappointed' with Lula -

While many residents are excited about a potential oil bonanza in their poverty-stricken town, Karipuna is far from convinced.

"In the event of a spill, we will inevitably be affected. Water has no borders," said the 57-year-old chief.

He fears an "immense disaster" if an oil leak off the coast is carried into the Curipi River, which runs alongside his village of 1,800 inhabitants.

Petrobras has said its analyses do "not indicate the probability" of oil "reaching the coast in the event of a spill."

"There is no such thing as zero risk in offshore exploration,", Jean Paul Prates, who headed Petrobras in 2023-2024 and now chairs the energy and natural resources thinktank Cerne, told AFP.

"It is a low-probability risk, but with potentially high consequences."

Karipuna says he is "disappointed" with Lula, who presents himself as a defender of the environment and Indigenous peoples.

Lula has said that while he is against fossil fuels, he believes the world cannot live without them yet, and that oil can finance the transition to clean energy.

Karipuna said he is already feeling the impact of oil exploration because of "the noise from planes and helicopters," which he said scares away birds and game.

His concerns are shared by Joelso Mendonca, vice president of a group of nearly 400 traditional fishermen.

"If there is an oil spill, nobody is going to want to buy our fish," the 50-year-old said, while repairing his net in a stilted shack on the riverbank.

Petrobras told AFP it had "maintained continuous dialogue" with civil society and Indigenous communities.

Regarding air traffic, the company said it had made "adjustments" following consultations with Indigenous leaders.

— 'Starting from scratch' —

While some see the potential oil as a curse, Jacqueline Cadete considers it a "sign from God."

The 45-year-old evangelical pastor moved to Oiapoque at the end of 2025, attracted by oil "opportunities" after living abroad for many years in French Guiana and metropolitan France.

According to a study by the National Industry Observatory, more than 50,000 jobs could be created in Amapa.

And any royalty payments Petrobras will have to make once production begins could provide a considerable windfall for local authorities.

However, Petrobras president, Magda Chambriard, announced in August that production was not expected to begin for another "six or seven years."

In the meantime, Mayor Inacio Monteiro Maciel is "very optimistic" about the future, even though the city will have to "practically start from scratch" in terms of infrastructure and social policies.

More than half of the roughly 28,000 inhabitants recorded in the town's 2022 census receive Bolsa Familia, a benefit paid to Brazil's poorest households.

But the city has experienced an influx of newcomers in recent years, which has "intensified" since Petrobras began drilling, the mayor said.

He estimates that 40,000 to 45,000 people already live in Oiapoque.

— 'The new Dubai' —

The mayor said that a rise in "real estate speculation" has pushed many families out of the city center into new peripheral neighborhoods, where conditions are often precarious.

In a neighborhood called Nova Conquista, 32-year-old Thais Pereira de Souza lives in a tiny house with a corrugated metal roof, without water or electricity, alongside her husband, her two sons and her pregnant daughter-in-law.

They are crammed into a single room with two mattresses and two hammocks, after they were no longer able to afford their studio apartment in the city center.

She expects "life to improve" thanks to the oil.

Lilma Campos, president of Oiapoque's Commercial and Industrial Association, anticipates a "radical change" but prefers to keep her feet on the ground.

"Just because oil has been found, some people think this will become the new Dubai, but we really don't know what's going to happen."

(G.Gruner--BBZ)