Berliner Boersenzeitung - Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

EUR -
AED 4.177061
AFN 81.880746
ALL 99.252011
AMD 444.590879
ANG 2.049629
AOA 1037.158904
ARS 1294.140504
AUD 1.780172
AWG 2.047025
AZN 1.934273
BAM 1.956825
BBD 2.294803
BDT 138.092365
BGN 1.957857
BHD 0.428625
BIF 3332.101328
BMD 1.137236
BND 1.492134
BOB 7.854392
BRL 6.605289
BSD 1.136596
BTN 97.022843
BWP 15.66621
BYN 3.71968
BYR 22289.824581
BZD 2.282996
CAD 1.574122
CDF 3271.827709
CHF 0.930816
CLF 0.028662
CLP 1099.8895
CNY 8.30054
CNH 8.306047
COP 4901.486936
CRC 571.199327
CUC 1.137236
CUP 30.136753
CVE 110.766012
CZK 25.063085
DJF 202.109303
DKK 7.466602
DOP 68.805429
DZD 150.758836
EGP 58.14335
ERN 17.058539
ETB 151.279275
FJD 2.597108
FKP 0.857926
GBP 0.857288
GEL 3.11624
GGP 0.857926
GHS 17.695226
GIP 0.857926
GMD 81.308645
GNF 9843.34469
GTQ 8.754588
GYD 238.429138
HKD 8.827976
HNL 29.46444
HRK 7.529411
HTG 148.317723
HUF 408.387093
IDR 19177.096068
ILS 4.180337
IMP 0.857926
INR 97.094362
IQD 1489.779092
IRR 47906.064943
ISK 145.100319
JEP 0.857926
JMD 179.644139
JOD 0.806641
JPY 161.853129
KES 147.269042
KGS 99.205075
KHR 4566.00226
KMF 493.004864
KPW 1023.518647
KRW 1613.043966
KWD 0.34871
KYD 0.947196
KZT 594.971784
LAK 24598.413673
LBP 101896.340892
LKR 339.937138
LRD 227.418736
LSL 21.444738
LTL 3.357962
LVL 0.687903
LYD 6.220968
MAD 10.547909
MDL 19.662304
MGA 5177.713287
MKD 61.514233
MMK 2387.530139
MNT 4022.532693
MOP 9.086962
MRU 44.847502
MUR 51.277935
MVR 17.51173
MWK 1974.241931
MXN 22.425326
MYR 5.012366
MZN 72.675065
NAD 21.444738
NGN 1824.91419
NIO 41.821916
NOK 11.92757
NPR 155.236349
NZD 1.917428
OMR 0.437833
PAB 1.136596
PEN 4.279431
PGK 4.700463
PHP 64.495497
PKR 319.106406
PLN 4.278742
PYG 9097.767521
QAR 4.140223
RON 4.978935
RSD 117.291464
RUB 93.451578
RWF 1609.188866
SAR 4.267179
SBD 9.516785
SCR 16.196165
SDG 682.914226
SEK 10.940409
SGD 1.490626
SHP 0.893689
SLE 25.900597
SLL 23847.250746
SOS 649.925676
SRD 42.24872
STD 23538.488054
SVC 9.945212
SYP 14786.663141
SZL 21.402912
THB 37.923377
TJS 12.206811
TMT 3.980326
TND 3.398079
TOP 2.663519
TRY 43.420522
TTD 7.712041
TWD 36.987508
TZS 3056.319626
UAH 47.101683
UGX 4166.329832
USD 1.137236
UYU 47.664978
UZS 14768.739292
VES 91.955341
VND 29420.293975
VUV 138.799625
WST 3.16989
XAF 656.312471
XAG 0.034867
XAU 0.000342
XCD 3.073437
XDR 0.816192
XOF 653.91086
XPF 119.331742
YER 278.907389
ZAR 21.42589
ZMK 10236.488002
ZMW 32.36396
ZWL 366.189511
  • CMSD

    0.0400

    21.96

    +0.18%

  • SCS

    0.0500

    9.76

    +0.51%

  • NGG

    0.6300

    72.11

    +0.87%

  • AZN

    0.5400

    67.59

    +0.8%

  • GSK

    0.5600

    35.93

    +1.56%

  • BTI

    0.5400

    42.37

    +1.27%

  • RBGPF

    63.5900

    63.59

    +100%

  • CMSC

    0.0400

    21.82

    +0.18%

  • RIO

    1.0100

    58.17

    +1.74%

  • RELX

    1.0000

    52.2

    +1.92%

  • BP

    0.6600

    28.32

    +2.33%

  • BCC

    0.7800

    93.47

    +0.83%

  • JRI

    0.1600

    12.4

    +1.29%

  • VOD

    0.1400

    9.31

    +1.5%

  • BCE

    0.4200

    22.04

    +1.91%

  • RYCEF

    -0.1400

    9.36

    -1.5%

Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'
Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

Several world powers have indicated that a deal -- at least in principle -- to revive the Iran nuclear accord may be just days away, but experts warn that failure still cannot be ruled out.

Text size:

The 2015 accord had offered Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme, but the US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed heavy economic sanctions, prompting Iran to start ramping up its nuclear activities.

The outline of a new deal appears to be on the table in talks which have been held in Vienna since late November between signatories Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia -- and the United States indirectly.

"The West, Russia, and China appear to be more aligned than at any prior point," said Henry Rome, analyst with the Eurasia Group.

The strategy of the world powers appears to be "pressuring Iran to bring the talks to a conclusion," the analyst said, adding that the negotiations appeared to nearing a "decision point".

A diplomatic source in Vienna confirmed this week that there had been "advances" in the talks.

The US State Department said on Thursday that "substantial progress" had been made, and that an agreement was possible within days if Iran "shows seriousness".

The day before French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had said a deal was "within grasp" but that "a serious crisis" was still possible if Iran refused to accept the proposals of the other parties.

Experts believe Iran is only a few weeks away from having enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon -- even if it would take several more complicated steps to create an actual bomb.

Iran has always denied it wanted to acquire atomic weapons, and on Thursday supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called such claims "absurd".

- Points of contention -

The stumbling blocks in the way of a new deal have long been clear.

The points of contention "have been on the table from the very beginning," said Ali Vaez, Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.

They include which sanctions will be lifted and whether Washington can offer Tehran any guarantees against the possibility of a future US president repeating Trump's move.

Tehran also wants to know that companies and banks venturing back into Iran will not be penalised by potential future American sanctions.

"I think both sides believed that the other would blink and give more concessions on these issues at the last minute," Vaez said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said this week that his country wanted "political statements" from the parliaments of the other signatories -- including the US Congress -- underlining their commitment to the deal.

"Iran's commitments are as clear as a mathematical formula," he said.

Vaez said that "on the question of scope of sanctions relief, I think there is more room for manoeuvre on the West's side."

"But the reality is that on the question of guarantees, there's really nothing that the US can do and offer," he added, given the difficulty of binding the hands of a future administration.

- Best and worst case scenarios -

Echoing Amir-Abdollahian, Iran's top negotiator Ali Bagheri called on the other parties to "avoid intransigence".

"We are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though," he tweeted earlier this week.

Two scenarios are possible in the current conditions, according to Vaez.

"If, in the next few days, the Iranians don't back off from some of their demands, then I think what you're likely to see is a Western walkout," he said.

That could lead to a resolution criticising Iran being put forward at the next Board of Governors meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, due to begin on March 7.

Vaez said this could be the first step in a "cycle of escalation".

However, faced with multiple security crises in other parts of the world, Vaez said "the last thing the Biden administration wants" is a nuclear proliferation headache in Iran.

The more optimistic scenario would entail "a breakthrough in... the next four or five days" opening the door for a deal being "announced towards the end of this month or early March".

According to analyst Rome, even the "soft deadline" of March 7 may slip by, "especially if Iran continues talking, given significant reluctance in the West to pivot to an alternative strategy".

(L.Kaufmann--BBZ)