Berliner Boersenzeitung - Finnish PM's SDP tied with centre-right in close election

Marin, who became the world's youngest prime minister in 2019 at age 34, is fighting for a second term just days before Finland's historic accession to the NATO defence alliance.

With almost half of votes counted, including ballots cast in advance, the conservative National Coalition Party and the Social Democrats (SDP) each had 20.6 percent, followed by the far-right Finns Party with 18.6 percent.

An exit poll published by Finland's MTV television meanwhile put the Social Democrats in first place, with 20.2 percent of votes, compared to 19.9 for the National Coalition and 18.9 percent for the Finns Party.

"Let's take our time, but now we have a good start, a very good start," National Coalition leader Petteri Orpo told public broadcaster Yle after the first results ticked in.

The biggest party in parliament traditionally gets the first chance to build a government, and since the 1990s that party has always claimed the prime minister's office.

Marin, who has struggled to convert her overwhelming popularity into support for her SDP, said she was optimistic.

"I am really grateful for all the votes that have been cast so far and let's hope that the election day votes will be another big pot," she told Yle.

- 'Rock star's days are over' -

Marin is Finland's most popular prime minister this century, according to polls, and has made headlines internationally for her hard line against Finland's eastern neighbour Russia.

She is a popular speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos and has been featured on the cover of Time Magazine and in Vogue.

Yet while some view her as a strong leader who deftly navigated the Covid-19 pandemic and the NATO membership process, others see the rising public debt on her watch and backlash over video clips of her partying as signs of inexperience.

As a result, her SDP party has struggled to gain wider support.

"I liked Marin... but I don't personally believe that her ideas about economic policy are something she and her government can actually achieve," 29-year-old Kasper Kylmala told AFP after casting his ballot.

Antti Piispanen, a 30 year-old salesman, put it more bluntly: "The 'rock star' Marin's time is over, she did nothing good."

Finland's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 64 percent in 2019 to 73 percent, which Orpo's National Coalition wants to address by cutting spending by six billion euros ($6.5 billion).

Yet Marin rejuvenated her greying party, with her appeal strongest among women.

"As a young woman, it's important to have someone that feels close to me," said Irja Vaateri, a 26-year-old university student who campaigned for Marin.

- Tough talks ahead -

A top spot for the Finns Party, and a far-right prime minister, would be a first in Finland.

The party could beat its record 19.05 percent score from the 2011 election.

In the previous election in 2019, "we went up after the advance votes" were counted, party leader Riikka Purra told Yle, adding that "the suspense will last a long time".

Her eurosceptic party, which appeals overwhelmingly to male voters, wants a hard line on immigration, alleging that recent arrivals are behind a surge in gang violence in neighbouring Sweden.

Support for the populist party has also climbed since last summer with the surge in inflation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Negotiations to build a government are expected to be thorny and could last several weeks.

Marin has ruled out forming a government with what she calls the "openly racist" Finns Party, while Orpo has said he will keep his options open despite clashing with the Finns Party on immigration, the EU and climate policy.

The Finns Party sees "Fixit" -- an exit from the European Union -- as a long-term goal and wants to postpone Finland's target of carbon neutrality for 2035.

This gives Orpo a central role in forming the next government, as both the Finns Party and the SDP would probably need him to obtain a majority.

(K.Lüdke--BBZ)