Berliner Boersenzeitung - 'It's dragged on': Ukrainians confront slow war gains

Hanging over the celebrations is the spectre of a grinding offensive taking longer than hoped to liberate occupied territory, spurring doubt in the West over its political and military backing for Ukraine.

Anna, a 35-year-old resident of Kyiv who declined to give her last name, said the sight of the mangled Russian hardware filled her with rage but hope, too, that Ukrainian forces would ultimately boot out Moscow's army.

"It's clear that it's not happening as soon as anyone would expect. Maybe somewhere in the West, where people aren't clued in, they think it's a reality show," she told AFP.

Kyiv launched its counteroffensive in June after stockpiling Western-supplied weapons, building up assault battalions and working to degrade Russian positions on the front.

Progress has been modest.

Ukraine is crashing into Russian defensive lines of trenches and minefields that are kilometres deep, and its forces have clawed back just several villages in the south and pressured the flanks of Bakhmut, a war-scarred town in the east.

- 'Misplaced' expectations -

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told AFP last week the West was not pressuring Kyiv to post faster gains, and that Ukrainian forces would recapture all occupied territory, making clear: "we don't care how long it takes".

But reports in US media suggest that there is growing consternation in Washington over the pace of gains as well as Ukraine's battlefield strategy, fanning reservations over how long Kyiv's most staunch ally can keep up support.

And newly-reported US intelligence estimates show the staggering cost for Ukraine with some 70,000 military personnel killed and even more injured.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu this month weighed in, claiming Ukraine's resources and offensive potential were exhausted.

Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, said given Russian defensive preparations and artillery firepower, the offensive was always going to be long and hard.

"I don't understand what people expected," he told AFP.

He also attributed the pace of gains to Ukraine's strategy of preserving as much manpower and hardware as possible.

"The whole idea that without fire superiority Ukraine can unhinge this Russian defence and quickly create openings -- it was misplaced," he added.

Vitali, a 21-year-old Ukrainian soldier on leave in the capital, said the military was spread too thinly along the front to launch a concentrated offensive.

- 'Delay is infuriating' -

"I agree. It's dragged on," he told AFP, saying he understood Western concerns over the timeframe of the offensive.

"It seems to me that there are not enough people or equipment," he said.

On that front, President Volodymyr Zelensky secured a long-awaited win this week during a visit to the Netherlands and Denmark, where he secured dozens of F-16 fighter jets.

But their rollout will take time and analysts doubt the immediate impact they will have on the battlefield.

"The news is as welcome as the delay is infuriating. The training will take months, and the decision could have been made 18 months ago, or even earlier," Edward Lucas, a pro-Ukrainian observer, wrote recently for the CEPA think tank.

Bielieskov, the analyst in Kyiv, meanwhile said Ukraine needed cruise and ballistic missiles -- and well as more artillery shells -- to sustain its attack and make progress.

In the capital, officials have warned of muted independence day celebrations on August 24.

Its mayor, former boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, announced large-scale events had been cancelled due to the threat of punitive Russian strikes and urged residents to listen out for air raid sirens.

She said Ukraine's allies abroad could help make that a reality by giving more arms as soon as possible.

And she offered another suggestion for how they could help bring about speedier victories.

"Let them come and do it themselves. Let them see what it looks like."

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(P.Werner--BBZ)