Berliner Boersenzeitung - France's Macron bids to prevent far-right takeover

The far-right National Rally (RN) party of Marine Le Pen won a resounding victory in the first round of the polls Sunday, with Macron's centrists trailing in third behind a left-wing coalition.

But the key suspense ahead of the second round on July 7 was whether the RN would win an absolute majority in the new National Assembly, enabling it to form a government and make Le Pen's protege Jordan Bardella, 28, prime minister.

Most projections published by French polling organisations showed the RN falling short of an absolute majority, but the final outcome remains far from certain.

A hung parliament could lead to months of political paralysis and chaos -- just as Paris is preparing to host the Olympic Games this summer, and while France on the international stage takes a prime role in backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is likely to be forced to resign after the second round, warned that the far right was now at the "gates of power".

The RN should not get a "single vote" in the second round, he said.

"We have seven days to spare France from catastrophe," said Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance.

- 'Threshold of power' -

The RN garnered 33 percent of the vote, compared to 28 percent for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, and more than 20 percent for Macron's centrist camp, according to preliminary results.

But with less than 100 seats being decided outright in the first round, the final composition of the 577-seat National Assembly will only be clear after the second phase.

The second round will see a three-way or two-way run-off in the remainder of the seats to be decided, with Macron's camp hoping that tactical voting will prevent the RN winning the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

The French stock market, which had been under considerable pressure in June amid the political uncertainty, also rallied in early trading on hopes the RN would not win an absolute majority.

Macron in a written statement urged a "broad" coalition against the far right in the second round, amid controversy among supporters over whether they should tactically vote for the left where needed in the second round.

"The extreme right at the threshold of power," read Monday's headline in daily Le Monde.

Late Sunday police said some 8,000 left-wing supporters thronged the Place de la Republique in central Paris to denounce the prospect of the far right taking power.

- 'Self-sabotage' -

The arrival of the anti-immigration and eurosceptic RN in government would be a turning point in French modern history: the first time a far-right force has taken power in the country since World War II, when it was occupied by Nazi Germany.

If the RN takes an absolute majority and Bardella becomes prime minister this would create a tense period of "cohabitation" with Macron, who has vowed to serve out his term until 2027.

Rancour remained over Macron's decision to call the election in the first place, a move he took with only a tight circle of advisers in the hours after his party was trounced by the RN in European elections last month.

The chaos risks damaging the international credibility of Macron, regarded by some as the European Union's number-one leader and who immediately after the second round will attend the NATO summit in Washington.

Russia, which the French government has repeatedly accused of seeking to interfere in domestic politics, is following the election results in France "very closely", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

With elections looming Thursday in the UK where left-wing Labour is expected to end 14 years of right wing Conservative rule, Labour leader Keir Starmer said the French polls were a lesson "we need to address the everyday concerns of so many people".

"Macron's gamble of calling for a snap election has backfired, leaving him weakened and isolated," said Celia Belin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

She described the move as "self-sabotage, accelerating the rise of the far right in French politics by months or even years".

(S.G.Stein--BBZ)