Berliner Boersenzeitung - Marcos Jr eyes victory as Philippines votes for new president

Nearly 40 years after the patriarch was deposed by a popular revolt and the family chased into exile, Ferdinand Marcos Jr looks set to complete their remarkable comeback from pariahs to the peak of political power.

Ten candidates are vying to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte in elections seen by many as a make-or-break moment for the Philippines' fragile democracy.

But only Marcos Jr and his rival Leni Robredo, the incumbent vice president, have a credible chance of winning.

From before dawn, mask-clad voters formed long queues to cast their ballots in 70,000 polling stations across the archipelago.

At Mariano Marcos Memorial Elementary School in the northern city of Batac, the ancestral home of the Marcoses, voters waved hand fans to cool their faces in the tropical heat.

Bomb sniffer dogs swept the polling station before Marcos Jr arrived with his younger sister Irene and eldest son Sandro.

They were followed by the family's flamboyant 92-year-old matriarch Imelda, who was lowered from a white van while wearing a long red top with matching trousers and slip-on flats.

Sandro, 28, who is running for elected office for the first time in a congressional district in Ilocos Norte province, admitted the family's history was "a burden".

But he added: "It's one that we also try to sustain and protect and better as we serve."

Casting her ballot for Robredo at a school in the central province of Camarines Sur, Corazon Bagay said the former congresswoman "deserves" to win.

"She has no whiff of corruption allegations," said the 52-year-old homemaker.

"She's not a thief. Leni is honest."

Supporters chanting "Leni, Leni" greeted Robredo as she arrived at the same school to vote.

Turnout is expected to be high among the more than 65 million Filipinos eligible to vote.

"We can say that our elections are a success with so many people lining up to vote," said George Garcia of the Commission on Elections.

At the end of a bitter campaign, polls showed Marcos Jr heading towards a landslide victory.

In the Philippines, the winner only has to get more votes than anyone else.

Since Robredo announced her bid for the top job in October, volunteer groups have mushroomed across the country seeking to convince voters to back her in what they see as a battle for the country's soul.

But relentless whitewashing of the elder Marcos's brutal and corrupt regime, support of rival elite families and public disenchantment with post-Marcos governments have fuelled the scion's popularity.

After six years of Duterte's authoritarian rule, rights activists, Catholic leaders and political analysts fear Marcos Jr will be emboldened to rule with an even heavier fist if he wins by a large margin.

"We think it will worsen the human rights crisis in the country," said Cristina Palabay, secretary-general of human rights alliance Karapatan.

While Marcos Jr had a 75 percent chance of winning, the outcome was not guaranteed, according to Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford, who said potential complacency among his supporters could work in Robredo's favour.

- Authoritarian rule -

Robredo, a 57-year-old lawyer and economist, has promised to clean up the dirty style of politics that has long plagued the feudal and corrupt democracy, where a handful of surnames hold sway.

Marcos Jr and running mate Sara Duterte -- both offspring of authoritarian leaders -- have insisted they are best qualified to "unify" the country, though what that means is unclear.

Hundreds of thousands of red-clad supporters turned out at Marcos Jr and Duterte's raucous rally in Manila on Saturday, as they made a last push for votes.

Josephine Llorca said successive governments since the 1986 revolution that ousted the family had failed to improve the lives of the poor.

"We tried it and they were even worse than the Marcoses' time," she said.

Surveys indicate Marcos Jr, 64, will win more than half the votes, which would make him the first presidential candidate to secure an absolute majority since his father was overthrown.

Political analyst Richard Heydarian warned such a big win could enable Marcos Jr to make constitutional changes to entrench his power and weaken democratic checks and balances.

"(Rodrigo) Duterte never had the discipline and wherewithal to push his authoritarian agenda to its logical extreme," Heydarian said.

- 'Another crossroads' -

Other candidates seeking the presidency include boxing legend Manny Pacquiao and former street scavenger turned actor Francisco Domagoso.

Personality rather than policy typically influences many people's choice of candidate, though vote-buying and intimidation are also perennial problems in Philippine elections.

More than 60,000 security personnel have been deployed to protect polling stations and election workers.

Police reported at least two deadly shootings at polling stations on the restive southern island of Mindanao that had left four people dead and three wounded.

That followed a grenade attack on Sunday that injured nine people.

In a rousing speech Saturday, Robredo declared: "Victory awaits us."

Whatever the result, though, Marcos Jr opponents have already vowed to pursue efforts to have him disqualified over a previous tax conviction and to extract billions of dollars in estate taxes from his family.

"We need to continue to stand up and struggle."

(A.Lehmann--BBZ)