Berliner Boersenzeitung - Macron scrambles to find new French PM as Bayrou set to resign

On Monday, Bayrou suffered a crushing loss in a confidence vote he had himself called, plunging France into fresh uncertainty and leaving Macron with the task of finding the seventh premier of his mandate.

The French presidency said in a statement that Macron "took note" of the outcome and said he would name a new premier "in the next days", ending any remaining speculation that the president could instead call snap elections.

Macron will meet Bayrou on Tuesday "to accept the resignation of his government", it added. The formal submission of his resignation was expected in the middle of the day.

The French president has in the past been notoriously slow in "casting" a new prime minister. But he is widely expected on this occasion not to procrastinate given the risk of financial and political stability.

"Emmanuel Macron is now in the front line to find a solution to the political crisis," said the Liberation daily.

France's borrowing costs, a measure of investor confidence in a country, on Tuesday surged slightly higher than those for Italy, long one of Europe's debt laggards.

- 'Vulnerable president' -

Bayrou had blindsided even his allies by calling a confidence vote to end a lengthy standoff over his austerity budget, which foresaw almost 44 billion euros ($52 billion) of cost savings to reduce France's debt pile.

In the vote in the National Assembly, 364 deputies voted that they had no confidence in the government while just 194 gave it their confidence.

Bayrou was the sixth prime minister under Macron since his 2017 election, and the fifth since 2022. His predecessor Michel Barnier was brought down by a no-confidence vote in December and the crisis dates back to summer 2024 legislative elections that resulted in a hung parliament.

"Emmanuel Macron, a vulnerable president," said the Le Monde daily, adding that he was now "under pressure" to find a new prime minister.

Macron "will move rapidly to replace Bayrou," said the Eurasia Group risk analysis firm, adding he will seek to "head off a full-scale market and constitutional crisis."

- Unpopular president -

Macron, who has been leading diplomatic efforts internationally to end Russia's war on Ukraine, now faces one of the most critical domestic decisions of his presidency over who to appoint as premier.

The Socialist Party (PS) has expressed readiness to lead a new government but it is far from clear whether such an administration led by a figure such as PS leader Olivier Faure could survive.

"I think it's time for the left to govern this country again and make sure we can break with the policies of the last eight years," Faure told TF1 television.

Heavyweight right-wing cabinet ministers, such as Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, are trusted by Macron but risk being voted out by the left.

Lower-profile options who could find a centre-left consensus include Health Minister Catherine Vautrin or Finance Minister Eric Lombard.

According to a poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro newspaper, 64 percent of the French want Macron to resign rather than name a new prime minister, a move he has ruled out.

He is forbidden from standing for a third term in 2027.

- 'Break with the politics' -

Alongside political upheaval, France is also facing social tensions.

A left-wing collective named "Block Everything" is calling for a day of action on Wednesday, and trade unions have urged workers to strike on September 18.

The 2027 presidential election meanwhile remains wide open, with analysts predicting the French far-right will have its best-ever chance of winning.

The hopes of three-time presidential candidate for the National Rally (RN) Marine Le Pen depend on the outcome of an appeal hearing early next year over her original conviction for an EU parliament fake jobs scam that disqualified her from standing for office.

The party leader of RN, Jordan Bardella, on Tuesday told RTL that it would move to bring down any government that does not "break with the politics of the last eight years" under Macron and reaffirmed a call for early legislative elections.

(G.Gruner--BBZ)