Berliner Boersenzeitung - Bolsonaro on brink of conviction in Brazil coup trial

Bolsonaro, 70, risks a prison term of over 40 years if found guilty of seeking to stay in power after his defeat in 2022 elections to leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the first to cast his vote in proceedings that could last until Friday, said: "Brazil nearly returned to dictatorship" after 40 years of democracy.

He said the evidence showed the accused were "part of a criminal organization led by Jair Messias Bolsonaro" and had in fact "committed all the criminal offenses charged by the Attorney General."

The former head of state, who claims he is the victim of political persecution, is in the dock on five charges with seven co-defendants, including former ministers and generals.

After Moraes, judge Flavio Dino -- a former justice minister under Lula -- also voted to convict.

Three more judges are set to vote over three days from Wednesday, in a public session broadcast live.

Judges can change their vote until a final verdict is reached, with a majority of three needed.

Only then will sentencing deliberations begin.

Bolsonaro can appeal.

"If judged solely on the basis of legal elements, I am convinced that he will be acquitted," Bolsonaro's lawyer, Paulo Cunha Bueno, told reporters outside the court Tuesday.

Bolsonaro's senator son, Flavio, accused the court of executing a "judicial lynching."

- 'Witch hunt' -

Bolsonaro, who served a single term from 2019 to 2022, stands accused of leading a "criminal organization" that conspired to overthrow Lula, failing only for a lack of support from the military top brass.

He also allegedly knew of a plan to assassinate Lula, his vice president Geraldo Alckmin and judge Moraes.

Bolsonaro is also accused of inciting the violent 2023 storming of the Supreme Court, presidential palace and Congress in Brasilia by hundreds of supporters who urged the military to oust Lula.

Moraes, who has repeatedly clashed with Bolsonaro and other right-wing figures in disinformation cases, was placed under financial sanctions by Washington, which accuses Brasilia of persecution in the coup case.

Trump denounced a "witch hunt" against his ally and has slapped a 50-percent tariff on many imports from Brazil as punishment.

Moraes vowed in response the court would not bow to "internal or external threats and coercion."

There were fresh threats on Monday, with US State Department official Darren Beattie warning on X of "appropriate action" against Moraes and others who undermine "fundamental freedoms."

- Amnesty? -

The trial is the first of a Brazilian former head of state on coup charges.

For many Brazilians it is a test of democracy 40 years after the end of military dictatorship, for others a political show trial.

On Sunday, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters demonstrated in several cities to denounce the trial and thank Trump for his intervention.

A guilty verdict could scupper Bolsonaro's hopes of making a Trump-style comeback from a criminal conviction to the country's top job.

Previously found guilty of falsely casting doubt on Brazil's electronic voting system, he has been disqualified from holding public office until 2030.

Bolsonaro had been hoping to have that finding overturned to stand in elections next year that Lula, 79, will also contest.

Fearing his conviction is imminent, allies are pushing Congress to pass an amnesty law to save Bolsonaro from prison.

But judge Dino said Tuesday the crimes in question are "not subject to amnesty."

Bolsonaro followed Tuesday's hearing from his residence in Brasilia where he has been under house arrest since last month.

Lawyers have said he is in ill health, suffering the effects of being stabbed in the abdomen at a campaign rally in 2018.

(S.G.Stein--BBZ)