Berliner Boersenzeitung - Iran hits ships in Gulf chokepoint as G7 dips into oil reserves

Oil prices surged higher by more than five percent in early trading and markets have see-sawed since the end of last month, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, killed its supreme leader and plunged the Middle East into war.

As the conflict entered its 12th day, Iran vowed to target "economic centres and banks" that it deems linked to US and Israeli interests, and all eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz, the vital sea lane connecting Gulf oil and gas export terminals to the world economy.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had struck the Liberian-flagged container ship Express Rome and the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree because they had entered the Strait of Hormuz "after ignoring the warnings of the IRGC naval forces".

Thailand's navy said the Mayuree Naree was attacked while transiting the strait. Oman's navy rescued 20 crew members, but efforts were underway to find three more. Pictures shared by the Thai navy showed black smoke pouring out of the vessel.

IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri said in a social media post that "any vessel intending to pass must get permission from Iran".

Separately, the Iranian military's operational command declared on state television that any vessel that belongs to the United States, Israel or their allies would be considered a legitimate target and repeated a warning that it would "not allow a single litre of oil to transit" the strait.

The leaders of the G7 powers held a video meeting to discuss opening their strategic petroleum reserves to counter rising prices, in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Germany's energy minister Katherina Reiche said the IEA had asked member states to release 400 million barrels and that Germany would comply. Japan is ready to take the lead and to release oil reserves by Monday, without waiting for an IEA decision, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said.

As Iran presses its quest to inflict maximum pain on the global economy, its missiles, drone strikes and threats have all but shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global crude and LNG passes.

Analysts say a prolonged closure of the strait, which also carries a third of the fertiliser for world food production, would have a devastating effect on the global economy, particularly in Asia and Europe.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon said US forces had carried out strikes that destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels that could have been used to block the strait, but Iranian attacks with drones or missiles continued on Wednesday with at least three ships hit.

"If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before," US President Donald Trump posted on social media.

Israel said it had begun a new "wide-scale wave of strikes" across Iran and against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon's capital Beirut, and Defence Minister Israel Katz said: "This operation will continue without any time limit, as long as necessary."

- Airport hit -

On shore, drones fell near Dubai airport, injuring four people, the city's government said.

Trump has said the US Navy could accompany tankers through the strait, but experts were dubious about whether naval escorts would be enough to reopen Hormuz to trade.

"The security risks alone could make a single transit through the strait more costly than the profit margin on the oil shipment itself," the Soufan Center think tank said in a briefing note.

"Experts estimate that Iran's naval mine stockpile sits anywhere from 2,000 to 6,000 mines, which would further complicate any naval plan to escort commercial tankers," it said.

- 'Enemies' -

The Israeli-US attacks came weeks after Iranian authorities ruthlessly crushed mass protests, although the United States and Israel say they are not necessarily seeking to topple the Islamic republic.

Iranian authorities warned against dissent at home, with the country's police chief saying protesters would be viewed and dealt with as "enemies".

"All our forces are also ready, with their hands on the trigger, prepared to defend their revolution," national police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan said, in comments aired by IRIB.

In Iran, ordinary people were doing the best they could to adapt to living under frequent US-Israeli strikes.

"We've put our faith in God. For now, there's food in the shops. Every day I go to buy greens and bread, that's all," Tehran resident Mahvash, 70, told AFP journalists in Paris.

"People are calm," said another resident. "They are getting used to living despite everything and adapting -- as best they can -- to this situation."

- Ayatollah 'safe and sound' -

The United States and Israel launched the war on February 28 with an attack that killed Iran's veteran leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

His son Mojtaba Khamenei has been named his successor, though he has yet to appear in public, amid reports that he has been wounded.

"I heard news that Mr Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured. I have asked some friends who had connections. They told me that, thank God, he is safe and sound," said Yousef Pezeshkian, son of Iran's president, in a post.

Iran's health ministry said on March 8 that more than 1,200 people had been killed in US and Israeli strikes, and more than 10,000 civilians injured. AFP was not in a position to independently verify the figures.

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(U.Gruber--BBZ)