Berliner Boersenzeitung - Hungary's opposition surfs grassroots wave ahead of key election

But opposition leader Peter Magyar's hopes of ending thelongstanding premier's 16-year reign in Hungary rest in no small part on first-time campaigners like Menczel.

"Canvassing has a big impact," the 41-year-old told AFP in Jaszfenyszaru, a central Hungarian town long considered a stronghold of Orban's Fidesz party. "Even those who wouldn't dare reveal their political preferences come over and chat with us."

Magyar, a former government insider turned critic, is offering voters a radical break from Orban's self-described "illiberal" system, vowing to crack down on corruption and improve public services.

Thanks to his party's on-the-ground network, Orban's grip on small towns like Jaszfenyszaru, population 6,000, appears to be weakening ahead of the April 12 vote.

Orban, who has criticised neighbouring Ukraine and acted as a spoiler at many European Union summits, has long counted on his media dominance to promote his platform.

Instead, Magyar's TISZA party has had to rely on grassroots word-of-mouth to promote its message.

While the ruling party puts up billboards, TISZA has asked its supporters to hang party signs on homes and shopfronts.

Menczel said she decided to help the party after Magyar visited the town last August on his nearly non-stop nationwide tour.

She now spends up to three hours a day campaigning, on top of managing TISZA's local social media pages.

- 'Revolution of the entrepreneurs' -

When he shot into prominence in 2024, Magyar had no party apparatus behind him.

But his rise came in the wake of a child abuse pardon scandal which shook Orban's tight grip on power.

With many Hungarians already dissatisfied with the economy, the scandal proved a "tipping point", when many voters "realised they had enough of Orban's system", according to Zoltan Lakner, the editor-in-chief of the Jelen weekly newspaper.

After tirelessly criss-crossing the country and a prominent social media campaign, Magyar led a previously dormant TISZA to second place behind Fidesz at the 2024 European elections.

A month after the vote, he called supporters to set up loosely connected associations to handle on-the-ground organising, dubbed "TISZA islands", a nod to the party sharing its name with the country's longest river.

According to the party, around 4,000 "islands" have since been established, including in rural areas which the old opposition parties had effectively abandoned.

These groups organised local community events, such as charity drives, cookouts and political discussions, before switching to full-time campaigning.

Key to these events' success was the involvement of small and medium-sized businesses, according to Lakner, who describes the movement as a "revolution of entrepreneurs".

"This also affects the islands' attitude towards politics: They approach it pragmatically instead of ideologically, simply wanting the country to function well," the analyst explained.

- Breaking the 'spiral of silence' -

Dozens of "islanders" ended up being chosen as party candidates during November's primaries.

Many of them are locally respected professionals, such as doctors, who are completely new to politics.

"This lends them credibility, given the widespread disillusionment with professional politicians," Bulcsu Zsiga, a researcher at the Centre for Fair Political Analysis, told AFP.

But their political inexperience carries a "danger" which TISZA is "clearly trying to mitigate", the expert noted, pointing to the party's much criticised policy of restricting media access to candidates.

Even so, drawing in local figures has helped to break the "spiral of silence" some Fidesz-dominated rural communities, where opposition supporters previously felt isolated or reluctant to express their views, Zsiga added.

In the Hungarian countryside, activism often comes at a price, some dearer than others, as campaigners in Jaszfenyszaru can attest.

Menczel, the beautician, said that a close relative of the local Fidesz lawmaker stopped frequenting her salon after she posted a picture with TISZA's candidate on social media.

Others have suffered more serious consequences.

Forty-eight-year-old retailer Eszter Somfai had her home address shared online, after an internal party database with some 200,000 supporters' personal details was leaked last November.

"But we will not let them deter us, we proudly campaign for Tisza," Menczel said.

"I feel people here are increasingly opening up… If everything is conducted fairly, then we will be victorious."

(G.Gruner--BBZ)