Berliner Boersenzeitung - Brazil votes in nail-biter polls closely watched by Trump

From villages deep in the Amazon rainforest to the agricultural heartlands in the south and sprawling urban favelas, Brazilians are facing a familiar cast -- with many forced to pick who they least dislike.

At 80, the veteran leftist Lula is seeking a fourth and final term in office, warning voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at stake due to pressure from Trump.

He is facing a tough battle from right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed 2022 re-election bid.

Opinion polls show neither candidate is likely to reach more than the 50 percent threshold required to win in the first round on Sunday, putting them neck-and-neck in an October 25 runoff.

Lula has an advantage in Brazil's poor northeast, and among low-income voters, Catholics, and women. Bolsonaro leads in the south, among wealthier voters and evangelicals.

Both have extremely high rejection rates in the deeply polarized nation where a bitter election campaign featured more scandals and mud-slinging than policy and promises.

Lula has slammed Bolsonaro as a "nobody" who is "not even fit to be a building manager."

Bolsonaro, who has cast himself as more "moderate" than his firebrand father, said Lula was "incompetent," declaring: "Brazil can't stand you anymore."

Voter turnout and last-minute choices are expected to be key.

"I've voted for Lula before, but he's getting old and this time I wanted something different. But I'm not going to vote for a Bolsonaro...so I'm kind of lost," said Joelio Camargo, 52, a motorcycle courier in Brasilia.

- 'More enemies' -

Lula, revered for social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, made a dramatic comeback to office in 2022 elections after a massive corruption scandal that saw him jailed for over 18 months.

The charges, thrown out on procedural grounds, have continued to haunt him.

He beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by only 1.8 percentage points.

Riots in Brasilia and the botched coup attempt after his election allowed him to cast himself as guardian of Brazil's democracy, even as Jair Bolsonaro's trial and conviction only deepened divisions.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters complain about a high cost of living and are fed up with crime.

Lula has also sharply curbed deforestation in the Amazon, but the environment has barely registered as a campaign issue.

Indigenous chief Bepdjo Mekragnotire, 45, of the Bau village in the Amazon, told AFP ahead of the vote: "We stand with Lula, all of us."

"Our concern is that if Flavio wins, there will be more enemies -- more illegal mining, more logging," he said.

- The Trump factor -

Trump has loomed large over the campaign, and said he is "very closely" watching the election, but he has not endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro.

The US president has wielded tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints ranging from the trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro to alleged unfair trade practices.

Lula has repeatedly warned him not to "meddle" in the elections.

Flavio Bolsonaro's rallies have featured massive US flags and images of Trump.

Buoyed by his father's legacy, he has been a formidable rival for Lula, even as it emerged he was under investigation for corruption over the financing of the biopic "Dark Horse" about his father.

The younger Bolsonaro has vowed a hardline approach to crime and fiscal austerity amid rising public debt.

Carlos Roberto dos Santos, 62, a cattle rancher in the southeastern city Barretos who supports Bolsonaro, told AFP he was fed up with unchecked government spending.

"They have so many social programs. To pay off the debt they have to raise interest rates and create new taxes. That affects every sector, not just agriculture."

(H.Schneide--BBZ)