Berliner Boersenzeitung - Brazil election offers Jair Bolsonaro a shot at revenge

The shock first-place finish by Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday's opening-round election offered a touch of vindication for his father, who has long claimed he is a victim of political persecution.

The far-right firebrand has been serving a 27-year sentence since late last year over his efforts to cling to power after losing his 2022 re-election bid to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the incumbent who is now battling his son at the polls.

Due to recurring health issues, the 71-year-old Jair Bolsonaro has been serving his sentence under house arrest in Brasilia. Banned from social media, he received few visitors during the campaign, according to records reviewed by AFP.

On the campaign trail, Flavio Bolsonaro vowed that his father would "walk up the ramp of Planalto (the presidential palace)" at his inauguration.

The former president "needs to be free to embrace the people," Alfredo Gaspar, Flavio Bolsonaro's running mate, told AFP.

However, he insisted that Jair Bolsonaro was "not hungry for power" nor seeking a role in any potential administration led by his son.

Jair Bolsonaro, his family and allies have maintained his innocence.

"The armed forces discussed staging a coup, so what? They discussed it, but they didn't stage the coup," Valdemar Costa Neto, president of Bolsonaro's Liberal Party, said in a podcast on Wednesday.

- Amnesty or pardon? -

Jair Bolsonaro's lawyers recently filed a new request for release, seeking a review of the trial that led to his conviction.

They allege abuses and inconsistencies in the way the trial was conducted by powerful Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a figure reviled by Bolsonaro supporters.

The review request is currently before another justice, Kassio Nunes Marques, an appointee of Jair Bolsonaro.

Marques's office told AFP that he intends to submit the matter to the full court after the runoff election on October 25 between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula.

However, proceedings could drag on beyond the scheduled inauguration date of January 5.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also pledged that the first act of his term would be to grant his father a presidential pardon.

Although a pardon could be signed "minutes after" taking office, various bureaucratic hurdles would prevent it from taking effect that same day, Thiago Bottino, a law professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP.

Another option would be to seek amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro in the legislature, where the right now holds a wider majority after Sunday's election.

However, newly-elected lawmakers will only take up their seats in January.

Unlike a pardon, an amnesty would allow Jair Bolsonaro to regain his political rights and thus run for office again.

However, Brazil's constitution would prevent him from running for president right after his son in the 2030 elections.

- 'A different person' -

Flavio Bolsonaro describes himself as more moderate than his father, who became known for misogynistic, racist and homophobic remarks and often looked back fondly at the country's military dictatorship (1964-1985).

Flavio Bolsonaro holds some similar views to his dad: He has defended the military regime and questioned the role of human activity in global warming, saying extreme weather events are "cyclical."

But he has attempted to win over women voters and his more relaxed, genial manner has made him palatable to a wider range of Brazilians.

"He defends Jair Bolsonaro's legacy, but he is a different person -- more capable of negotiation," his campaign manager Rogerio Marinho told AFP.

Helio Schwartsman, a columnist for the daily Folha de Sao Paulo, warned of the perils of revenge if the Bolsonaros win a second term in power, describing father and son as "a political collective."

Once in power, the Bolsonaros might lash out at opponents in ways similar to Donald Trump in the United States and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, who seem to harbor "accumulated resentment," he said.

Jair Bolsonaro is currently on antidepressants and is "stable," according to the latest medical reports, although his wife, Michelle, has said that the elections have made him "a bit anxious."

(L.Kaufmann--BBZ)