Berliner Boersenzeitung - Hurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course

The cyclone -- a Category 4 storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale -- is moving slowly and remained dangerous.

Weather reports had initially forecast a landfall around midday local time (1800 GMT) but data gathered by hurricane hunter aircraft indicated the cyclone was moving slower and would only reach about 15 kilometers (nine miles) off the coast of Jalisco state.

Even if a direct landfall does not occur, "all the cyclone's cloud bands, or the intense part of the cyclone, will still be affecting" coastal communities, Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological service, told AFP.

"We're going to have very severe effects, especially from wind along the coast," with waves of up to nine meters (30 feet) and exceptionally heavy rainfall, he added.

Simon is the latest in a busy hurricane season in the Pacific, where the powerful El Nino ocean warming phenomenon is weakening wind shear, allowing the storms to gain in strength. By contrast, El Nino has helped keep the Atlantic hurricane season relatively quiet.

- 'Be brief, be peaceful' -

AFP journalists in tourist hotspot Puerto Vallarta, in the storm's forecast path, observed overcast skies early Sunday, with heavier clouds building over the sea and mountains as a light rain was falling.

Businesses boarded up windows and doors, some spray-painting messages such as "Simon says: 'Everything will be fine,'" a reference to the popular game in which children follow instructions; and "Simon, be brief, be peaceful" alongside a drawing of a shark and smiley faces.

A couple strolled along the waterfront promenade, which was guarded by troops. An occasional jogger also took the opportunity to get out of the house.

Cruz Castillo, a 60-year-old Vallarta resident, said he was worried despite the relatively mild conditions.

"We're still watching to see how this is going to approach," he said.

Vicente Garcia, a 48-year-old tourist from California, was calmer.

"We were expecting a bigger storm yesterday, so we stayed inside, but I'm pleased that it wasn't as big as they were predicting," he said.

- Moving slow -

The latest report from the US National Hurricane Center put Simon's sustained winds at 230 kilometers (143 miles) per hour, with the storm moving at just 11 kph.

Since becoming a hurricane, Simon had barely exceeded a forward speed of 10 kph (6.2 mph). By contrast, Tropical Storm Rachel approached northern Mexico on Saturday at about 35 kph.

Simon has remained "nearly stationary" off Mexico's coast, Boris Comi, a meteorologist with Jalisco's civil protection agency, said. That means it can "generate more rain over a longer period," which "puts the population at greater risk."

Moving overland also helps weaken a storm. Puerto Vallarta, for example, benefits from its location in a bay and the presence of mountains that reduce the force of cyclones.

But moving parallel to the coast makes it easier for the storm "to remain at a slightly higher category," Vazquez, the director of the Mexican meteorological service, explained.

On Saturday, the Mexican Navy evacuated about 100 people by boat from coastal communities threatened by Simon. They were taken to Puerto Vallarta, where most have relatives they can shelter with. Others will go to one of five shelters set up in the city, which had already taken in 95 people by Saturday.

Elena Glumas, 63, arrived with her dogs from the village of Yelapa.

"Three years ago we lost everything. Now, well, I say life comes first," she said as she stepped off the ferry. She was referring to Hurricane Lidia, which battered her village with torrential rain in 2023.

(K.Müller--BBZ)