Berliner Boersenzeitung - Tensions high in Mozambique as opposition leader due home from exile

At one of several barriers erected around the airport, security forces shot and wounded one of hundreds of mostly young people wanting to reach the airport to welcome Mondlane home, an AFP reporter at the scene said.

Mondlane announced last week that he would land at Maputo's international airport at around 8:00 am (0600 GMT) in a bid to continue his demand for "electoral truth" after the October vote.

He claims that the election was rigged in favour of the candidate of the ruling Frelimo party, Daniel Chapo, who is due to be sworn in on January 15.

The election dispute has unleashed waves of violence that have left around 300 people dead, including protesters killed in a police crackdown, according to a tally by a local rights group.

Authorities say police have also been killed and there has been looting and vandalism.

There are fears that the charismatic Mondlane could be arrested on his return, including on charges related to the weeks of protests by his supporters, many of them young Mozambicans desperate for change after 50 years under Frelimo.

Any government action against Mondlane could send Mozambique -- still scarred by years of civil war -- into a major crisis, analysts said.

"If the government arrests Venancio, there will be an international outcry and potentially very dangerous demonstrations," said Eric Morier-Genoud, an African history professor at Queen's University Belfast.

"If they don't arrest him, he will occupy the centre and Frelimo will be weakened just a few days before the inauguration of the deputies and the president."

Mondlane's return gives people hope, said Fatima Pinto, 20, who trained as a general medical technician.

"We young people are here fighting for our tomorrow," she said, echoing a key complaint among the youth about not being able to find work that matches their qualifications.

Chapo, 48, takes over from President Filipe Nyusi, who bows out at the end of his two-term limit. Official results gave him 65 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for Mondlane.

But observers said they noted irregularities.

Since he went into hiding after the October 19 assassination of his lawyer, Mondlane has rallied his supporters via social media live addresses that have been joined by thousands.

By returning, Mondlane will "reclaim the political initiative", Morier-Genoud said, with the population "more militant than ever".

- Unpredictable situation -

The unrest has caused major losses to Mozambique's economy, stopping cross-border trade. Shipping, mining and industry has also been affected while thousands of people are reported to have fled to neighbouring countries.

Mondlane's return "will either destabilise or resolve the current political crisis", said Tendai Mbanje, analyst at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance.

With tensions running high, there are even fears he could be assassinated, as some of his supporters have been, Mbanje said.

"He is the current hope and future of the youths: if his life is at risk or tampered with, that will be a source of unending instability," he said.

"On the other hand, if Frelimo would like to unite the country, it is time that they take his return as an opportunity for dialogue."

Any attempt to harm Mondlane would unleash a "big demonstration with unpredictable consequences", said Mozambican sociologist Joao Feijo.

"We are talking about a population that has already tasted disobedience and is not afraid of anything else," he told AFP.

Tailor Americo Bulule, 52, said he hoped that the security forces would allow people to go to the airport to welcome Venancio.

"There's already been a lot of bloodshed so I'd like his arrival not to be a problem and the police to give the population access and we can go there to receive him without weapons and tear gas," he said.

(U.Gruber--BBZ)