Berliner Boersenzeitung - Tigray rebels in 'full-blown' war with govt

Tensions have been rising for months between the federal government and the authorities in the northern Tigray state, who fought a devastating civil war in 2020-2022 that killed more than 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates.

The two sides accuse each other of triggering a return to open conflict with attacks this week, and there are fears the fighting could draw neighbouring Eritrea into a wider conflict.

On Wednesday, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominates the state, seized control of three airports from federal police and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara.

A humanitarian source in Afar told AFP there were heavy artillery attacks by the rebels on Thursday as they attempted to take control of the town of Yallo, near the Tigrayan border.

"We are in the situation of full-blown war now," TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa told AFP.

He confirmed Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara.

The rebels took control of Abala, also on the Tigray-Afar border, on Wednesday, according to a foreign security source based in Ethiopia, while a TPLF source said they had seized several other Afar towns, though this could not be confirmed.

The foreign security source said there was fighting around the Amhara town of Weldiya -- one of the few routes to the capital, Addis Ababa.

Analysts say it mirrors the Tigrayan strategy during the 2020-2022 war -- seeking to cut off supply lines and push towards the capital.

"Their stated aim is to take Addis, but its tactical manoeuvres to reach the city are not yet known," said regional expert Kjetil Tronvoll, of Oslo New University College.

The offensive in Afar, he said, is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which supplies almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel.

- Regional conflict -

Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie Amde, speaking at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, decried "the forces of destruction and mayhem" and "interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements".

Analysts say the Tigray rebels have support from Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea.

The TPLF's Assefa told AFP "we have no information about Eritrea's plan". Asked if they would request Eritrean intervention, he said: "Not yet."

The Sudanese army is also angry with Ethiopia over its alleged support for its paramilitary enemies, the Rapid Support Forces. And there have been tensions with Turkey, Somalia and Egypt over a range of issues.

The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions and arms embargoes on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to the last civil war, saying the "national emergency... has expired".

The US embassy sided with Ethiopia's government on Wednesday, saying it was "disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF... launch a large-scale offensive".

- Alliances -

The TPLF is fighting alongside an insurgent group known as the Fano in Amhara. They forged an anti-government alliance with five other armed groups this weekend.

It shows the changing dynamics from the last civil war, when the Fano and Eritrea both fought with the government against the Tigrayans, only to be frustrated when a peace deal was signed in 2022.

The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, eventually triggering the civil war.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained an uneasy calm until late last year, when clashes resumed.

The federal government has since launched drone strikes in Tigray and massed troops at the regional border.

Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict, even as around one million people remained displaced from the last war.

(A.Berg--BBZ)